Consistent Compounders

Excessive Debt and the Illusion of Wealth

The reluctance of Indian lenders to finance capex combined with the rise of automation has jammed the ability of the Indian middle class to get jobs & pay hikes. With incomes stagnant and with Income Tax & GST taking away a growing share of the disposable income of the middle class, it has loaded up […]

Feb 12 . 14 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

India’s Middle Class is Losing Ground to the Rich & the Poor

The Indian middle class is losing ground not just to the super rich, but also to the poor. Over the past decade, the average annual income for the Indian middle class has stayed flat whereas that for the low-income group has grown at 4% p.a. Three sets of drivers have come together to squeeze the […]

Jan 23 . 14 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

University Education and the Illusion of Learning

In a year in which, over 80% of India’s latest crop of graduates failed to get jobs, we find that university education in India neither increases the probability of employment nor gives an uplift to earnings. These challenges are being exacerbated by the rise of AI & automation. Specifically, the skills necessary to thrive in […]

Jan 03 . 15 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

The Brave New World of Middle-Class ‘Gigs’ in India

It seems clear that India has a couple of painful years ahead of it as it grapples with AI reducing the demand for labour in sectors which lie at the heart of middle-class income generation e.g., Financial Services, IT Services, Media and Manufacturing. However, it is also evident that technology is creating new jobs in […]

Dec 11 . 13 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

Why is the Indian Middle-Class Suffering?

Consumption patterns show that India’s urban middle class is suffering. We believe that there are 3 reasons for this: (a) In offices & factories, technology is replacing humans in jobs entailing routine work; (b) The Indian economy is in the early stages of a cyclical economic downturn; and (c) Household balance sheets in India appear […]

Nov 24 . 7 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

The Big Are Getting Bigger and the Southern Ascendancy

Over the last 10 years, whilst India Inc’s PAT has grown at 17% p.a. on an average, the median Indian company’s PAT has grown at 15%. Delving into this gap between the average vs the median gave us two findings: (a) larger companies have grown profits faster than smaller companies; and (b) southern Indian companies’ […]

Nov 11 . 6 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

Why Read “Behold the Leviathan: The Unusual Rise of Modern India”?

On 21st October, Penguin Random House is publishing Marcellus’ next book, “Behold the Leviathan: The Unusual Rise of Modern India”, authored by Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Rajhansa. There are three very good reasons why you should read our book on how India is changing and how you can profit from that change. I have authored […]

Sep 30 . 8 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

‘Capitalism Without Capital’ Finds Strength in India

Whilst capitalism without capital, i.e., the growing prominence of companies who are plays on intellectual rather than physical assets, became established in the developed economies a generation ago, it’s now increasingly prominent amongst Indian companies, both large and small. Specifically, the fastest growth in PAT in the last 10 years has been in decile 2 […]

Sep 27 . 17 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

Creative Destruction on an Epic Scale in India Inc

As per data from the Income Tax department, of all Indian companies that filed non-zero tax returns for FY22, only 17% saw growth in PAT in real terms over the preceding ten years. And these 17% accounted for 98% of corporate India’s PAT. Furthermore, data from the CMIE shows that the prospect of upward mobility (in terms […]

Jun 26 . 17 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

India Stack 2.0: Using AI to Democratize Access to Tech

India’s methodical build of digital public goods, starting with Aadhaar, followed by Jan Dhan (bank accounts for all), and accompanied by affordable mobile connections (courtesy Jio) has led to successes such as the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). The next step in this journey seems likely to be to ensure that India Stack becomes truly transformative […]

May 15 . 15 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

The Underdog Ascends: The Rise of a New Indian Elite

  The joining up of India, digitally and physically, has democratized access to economic opportunities. This has helped new groups of people rise in the Indian economy. These newly ascendant people are neither based in India’s megacities, nor did they study in elite universities and nor do they belong to the socially privileged castes. From […]

Apr 07 . 15 MIN READ
Consistent Compounders

The Rise of the Woman Voter Has Big Investment Implications

  Amongst registered Indian voters, more women today are voting than men. The rise in women’s active participation in politics (despite lower representation in Parliament) is a culmination of greater access to information and to business opportunities and greater availability of free time. All of these have been, in part, facilitated by positive policy changes. […]

Mar 15 . 11 MIN READ

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